Largest ever opinion poll of marginal seats suggests Lib Dems favourites to win in Winchester

12.20.00pm BST (GMT +0100) Tue 6th Oct 2009

The "largest and most definitive UK marginals poll" of over 34,000 people in over 238 marginal constituencies, with fieldwork covered by YouGov plc, in behalf of PoliticsHome, has indicated that the Liberal Democrats look set to win the Winchester constituency.

Overall, the poll showed the Conservatives gaining an absolute majority of 80 seats in the country as a whole, but failing to win in Winchester.

Martin Tod, the Liberal Democrat Prospective MP for Winchester cautiously welcomed the study:

"Obviously this is encouraging, and it's consistent both with the very good result that we got in the local elections in June. However, we can't take anything for granted.

"One thing is clear: it now looks like Labour are not just out of the race locally. It increasingly looks like Labour are out of the race nationally too."